I haven’t had any chance to write for a week now due to the birth of my son, so I haven’t waded too much into the political fray, but I did want to quickly make my official predictions for the election whilst he is sleeping. I should point out very early on that these were my most recent electoral predictions:
US Election 2016
Trump to win the popular vote by a whisker
Clinton to win the Presidency by 40+ electoral college votes
Leave – 45%
Remain – 55%
UK General Election 2015
Hung Parliament with Labour the largest (but only just) minority party – Labour to form minority government.
So you will see that there is absolutely no need to put any stock into what I am saying. I have always followed the polls, which have in each case turned out to be a load of total nonsense.
For this election, the polls have been doing all sorts of funny things. What seemed like an inevitable Tory landslide has crept back to such a low point that even Tory insiders are rumoured to have put plans in place for a hung parliament. That being the case, I still don’t see anything other than a Tory victory, and given that a taboo seems to have been broken even in old mining towns for voting Tory, this could be a big one.
I would love to elaborate more, but alas there isn’t time. Not only will I be predicting the makeup of the next Parliament, I shall also throw in some social predictions as well. In those, I have much more confidence.
Party breakdown (in size order, 650 seats total)
Conservative and Unionist – 368
Labour – 210
Scottish National – 44
Northern Irish – 18
Liberal Democrat – 5
Plaid Cymru – 3
Green – 1
Speaker – 1
UKIP – 0
Social (and other) predictions
- Despite having barely made a peep about how the system works, there will be uproar over the rules and calls renewed for PR or a change to the voting system, because it’s “not fair”. This is inevitably only an issue once the party they want to win has lost.
- There will be widespread calls for “the old” to have their votes taken away from them. They will be chided and castigated and spoken about in the most horrid terms.
- Endless despair and misery will flood social media about “the kind of country this is”.
- The five stages of grief will be clearly identifiable for several days on social media.
- Jeremy Corbyn will continue as Labour leader.
- Many will claim that they have had enough and will be leaving the country. They will still vote in the 2022 election.
- Paul Nuttall will resign as UKIP leader.
- Tim Farron will resign as Lib Dem leader.
- Nicola Sturgeon will remain as SNP leader.
- A new Westminster leader for the SNP will be appointed after Angus Robertson has lost his seat to the Tories.
I’d love to add more but the day is nearly upon us. This is just a bit of fun. Being a non-partisan but politically engaged person has been fun this election. But I had fun in the run up to the referendum and post-vote was anything but. I expect the same this time around.
I am, however, very grateful that this time, rather than being sucked in to the vortex of wailing and gnashing of teeth that is online debate, I shall be able to put all that aside and focus on the new life that Zoya and I have brought into the world. A world that, I believe, is nowhere near as selfish and nasty as many will tell me it is.