Britain’s future will be within the EU

Plus, how the Left once made the case for Brexit – and still should

“Well, at twenty minutes to five, we can now say the decision taken in 1975 by this country to join the Common Market has been reversed by this referendum to Leave the EU. We are absolutely clear now that there is no way the Remain side can win. It looks like the gap is going to be something like 52-48, so a 4 point lead for leaving the EU. And that’s the result of this referendum which has been preceded by weeks and months of argument and dispute and all the rest of it, the British people have spoken and the answer is…

“We’re out.”

The immortal words of David Dimbleby on the 23rd June 2016. The words which confirmed the result, the decision taken by the electorate, the vote which will ultimately be overturned, discounted and quashed, whether by legal challenge, sophistry, governmental mismanagement or plain old politics.

That is what will happen, because that is what always happens.

Having spectacularly misjudged the mood and totally miscalculated the numbers, I watched as my prediction turned into a full 14 point swing away. Having predicted a 10 point win for Remain (55-45), the actual result of 4 points to Leave left me a little numb. The overwhelming sense of resignation to defeat turned into a momentary flash of belief. Wow…maybe you can beat the establishment.

That did not last long. As with all hope (apart from the eternal, obv), one must always take great care. I knew that this would only be a temporary victory, and temporary it will prove to be. The viciousness, venom and, frankly, tedium of the debate ever since has stopped me from writing about it. It simply isn’t worth it. It doesn’t matter how much you fight these things, even winning a democratic vote won’t stop those who hold such things in contempt.

May doesn’t have the numbers

Mrs. May has a deal. Well, so what? It isn’t going anywhere. It can’t get through Parliament, it can’t get past the electorate if ever put back to us, her government can’t sustain such a defeat and will fall, preceding either a new general or a referendum (which will be fixed properly this time so that we physically cannot give the ‘wrong’ response – lesson learned, guys), all of which takes us further and further away from the vote, eventually gaining a new mandate and claiming a victory for ‘democracy’. And who can blame them?

Britain has always been in the EU but straining away from it. Opt outs, rebates and vetoes have been the story of the relationship. But as with every strain at elastic, you start to weaken it. The referendum was our final pull and it will either break, flinging us out, falling at first but getting back up and fighting on, or we will become weak and resist its pull, throwing us back into the EU with no rebate, no opt outs, Schengen, the Euro and our soldiers being barked at in French and German. Well, those that are still left after the defence cuts, anyway.

I don’t say that we won’t actually leave – that is still, while unlikely, possible. But it won’t last long. Our political class is far too weak for such a state to continue for any length of time, and ultimately they will be wooed by the pensions and the fancy dinners at endless summits. Trust me, when the EU eventually collapses (which is surely will), we will be right there amongst the wreckage, clinging to a floating door.

Failure of leadership

Fundamentally, we are being led by people who don’t believe in what they’re doing – that is insanity. Having two competing mandates is ludicrous (and why referendums are constitutionally moronic) and approaching this with damage limitation in mind is completely counterproductive. I don’t believe in Corbyn’s proposed project, but I’d damn well rather he did it than Theresa May. What would be the point? If people vote for Socialism, then do Socialism properly. I think it would destroy the economy, but I may be wrong, and if I don’t win the vote, then I can only voice my opposition. Lots of people think leaving the EU will destroy the economy and I disagree, but if you approach it with that mindset then it will definitely do damage. We’re doing things the Mourinho way of saving a point, rather than the Guardiola/Klopp way of dominating and going for all 3. And that’s no fun for anyone, however we voted.

Which is why this can’t last much longer. Just as Mourinho will be sacked while still claiming he’s done brilliantly and his teams are definitely attacking, no question about it, Mrs. May will be ousted still claiming she smashed the negotiations and got a great deal. Which will leave the next person free to get their own mandate to stay. Just please, for the love of all that is good, don’t hold another referendum. If you’re going to defy it, just have the testicular fortitude to admit that’s what you’re doing, but don’t drag this charade on any longer.

Prophesy

I remember this piece from Matthew Parris that has stuck with me ever since, such was the crushing depth of his prophesy. When I first read it, I knew it was true. Written in September 2017, it crystallised how the powerful get their way and slowly crush the life out of resistance. Mr. Parris has a brilliant way with words – indeed, he was one of those who shook me the hardest in my thinking pre-vote, and I had serious cause to doubt and waver.

Read it – it explains exactly what has happened since he wrote it. This is what they do. It’s slow, it’s grinding, it’s boring, and it makes everyone give up and stop caring. Pure prophesy, and I knew it would come to pass.

So go ahead, stop the thing. I’m done caring. I’m taking my ball in – I won’t be voting in any more ‘democratic elections’, because really what is the point? Next ‘election’ when the crass virtue signalling of ‘I’ve just voted, make sure you do the same!!’ begins and spreads across cyberspace, it will be shown up as hollow and empty. ‘You can’t complain about things if you don’t vote!!’ ‘Make sure you vote – votes change things!!’. I always believed that.

But no. Sadly, the lesson I am forced to take from this whole sorry episode, is that they don’t.

Fond memories – when the Left dipped its toe in Brexit

I reshared this article on my social media while writing this as I love remembering how things once were, and indulge in that slightly sombre thought of what might have been.

It is from Owen Jones, that darling of the Socialist Left and is entitled ‘The Left must put Britain’s EU withdrawal on the agenda’. In it, Mr Jones outlines why he felt (back in July of 2015) that there was a left wing case for leaving the EU (no duh) and that people should start dipping their toes in the water. I have discussed previously what actually happened to this train of thought and why it happened, so I shan’t cover that old ground.

It’s sometimes difficult to remember, given the rage, bile and sliming that has happened since the vote, that public figures other than Nigel Farage flirted with Brexit. It felt tense at the time, but I look back on those times with fondness – it was the last occasion where you could openly discuss your opinions without real threat of abuse.

Read just some excerpts from it – ‘Britain’s left is turning against the European Union, and fast.’

‘The more leftwing opponents of the EU come out, the more momentum will gather pace and gain critical mass.’

‘But even outside the eurozone, our democracy is threatened.’

‘David Cameron is now proposing a renegotiation that will strip away many of the remaining “good bits” of the EU, particularly opting out of employment protection rules. Yet he depends on the left to campaign for and support his new package, which will be to stay in an increasingly pro-corporate EU shorn of pro-worker trappings. Can we honestly endorse that?’

‘If indeed much of the left decides on Lexit – it must run its own separate campaign and try and win ownership of the issue.’

‘Without a prominent Left Out campaign, Ukip could displace Labour right across northern England.’

‘The case for Lexit grows ever stronger, and – at the very least – more of us need to start dipping our toes in the water.’

Of course – well know what happened when he did dip his toe – the water was cold, he got scared and retreated while others of us swam out. But hey, that was his choice to make. But look at all of that – solid, genuine, left wing reasons to campaign on Leave. As Owen himself quotes, George Monbiot said ‘Everything good about the EU is in retreat; everything bad is on the rampage’, Caitlin Moran had her doubts, Nick Cohen described the EU as ‘a cruel, fanatical and stupid institution’.

Suzanne Moore said ‘European Union? Not in my name’. She also wrote a piece entitled ‘My instinct is pro-Brexit (and it’s nothing to do with Boris)’. My sentiments exactly.

Paul Mason made the case for leaving, he just said it shouldn’t be now. Google ‘left wing brexit’ and see the sheer amount of pieces written on the subject.

It’s such a shame all of this never really amounted to anything. It always feels pointless pointing out to those who think I give two hoots about immigration because I’m defo a racist because I voted Leave innit, that I had the likes of Socialist bulldog Dennis Skinner, Green Party peer Baroness Jenny Jones, Guardian columnist and Socialist Giles Fraser and many others on my side. Pointless because most people don’t want to remember these awkward facts. It gets on the way of bashing Tories and sliming Leavers. These nuances are thorns that need to just be ignored. Simple narratives, simple narratives, simple narratives…

That’s a shame. The argument beforehand was fierce but enlightening. Now it is just vicious and nasty.

It is said that the only mercy in war is a swift victory…you can see why.

The Windrush Scandal – how to unite a country in condemnation

When outrage comes from across the entire political spectrum, you know you’ve made a serious mistake

What an almighty mess this is. British people being sacked from jobs, unable to access healthcare and being threatened with deportation to countries they haven’t seen for decades. Welcome to government by ‘we think this is what you mean…?’

If ever a government wanted a clue, some sort of sign that it had made some errors in judgement, it couldn’t get much clearer than the reaction to the Windrush Scandal – a near universal reaction of horror from all corners, all political wings and all media outlets.

Governments these days seem to have no idea what those resistant to mass immigration actually mean. How can it be made any clearer? They don’t want a “hostile environment”. They don’t want people treated poorly. They don’t want cruelty and meanness. They simply want fewer people to come to Britain.

I’m in the familiar position here of trying to explain a position that I don’t particularly take – immigration has never been something I’ve hugely cared about, though I can see why there would be resistance to the scale we’ve seen in recent years. That said, you will rarely find anyone, anywhere in this country who opposes mass immigration and yet supports outrages like this.

Of course, you get the idiots, the racists, the horrid and the violent. These are people for whom we have much more to fear than simply their attitudes to foreigners. But these are in such a minority in this country, a point which is often difficult to get across to lovely liberals. There is a world of difference between hating people because of the colour of their skin (and therefore wanting them to stay away from Britain) and fearing that the sheer pace and scale of immigration is going to be too much. Conflating the two, which is all too common, is insane and counterproductive.

But that’s where you start to get crazy policies like these ones. “Hostile environments” indeed. Because we are constantly conflating the two distinct points of view, governments start to feel like they need to pander to the extreme, which is not how to deal with it. People don’t want others mistreated or put through turmoil, it’s not about cruelty and hostility, it is a mere policy position – slow the pace down, don’t be horrible and nasty about it. Those who do come should treated fairly and with respect.

The most strident voices I’ve heard throughout this ridiculous debacle have been from the ‘Right’ – that is, those who would typically oppose mass immigration. They have been furious at the treatment of these people. Why? Because they’re British citizens, and those on the Right have a keener sense of this fact than anyone else, being the more naturally patriotic side of the spectrum. They have been appalled at how the British state could treat British citizens so terribly.

Doesn’t this give you a clue? Does this not tip you off that racism isn’t a motivating factor? They are as British as I am, and as British as Jacob Rees-Mogg. They are completely naturalised and have been a part of this country for a lot longer than I have.

When the Guardian, the Telegraph, the Independent, the Spectator and the Mail are united in condemnation, this should be an alarm bell that you have miscalculated. The blame lies squarely with the government.

From Peter Oborne in the Daily Mail:

“Like the British people in general, the members of the Tory Party are mainly a decent and tolerant lot and have always welcomed immigrants who want to make this country their home and contribute to society. Paradoxically, reaction to the Windrush scandal proves this.

“As soon as their plight was highlighted by the Press, led by the Guardian and the Mail, there was public outrage. This didn’t just come from the Left, but from all parties across the political spectrum — including Ukip.”

From Brendan O’Neill in the Spectator:

“This is truly scandalous. The Home Office harassment of the Windrush generation is a black mark, perhaps the blackest mark yet, against Theresa May’s government, and she urgently needs to end this wickedness.

“[A] driver of this scandal is Theresa May’s great misreading of public concern about mass immigration as public hostility to migrants. This is one of May’s key failings. From her time as Home Secretary and her creation of a ‘hostile environment’ for illegal migrants, to her unjust expulsion of large numbers of foreign students, to her playing hardball with the rights of EU migrants in the UK in the wake of the Brexit vote, she has done a great deal to make life harder for migrants in the belief that this is what Britons want. But it isn’t. The majority of British people, as evidenced during the Brexit debates, want a greater democratic say over the immigration question, yes, but this doesn’t mean they hate migrants or want them to suffer. May is buying into the rather nasty outlook of that section of the political class which looks upon ordinary Brits as deeply anti-migrant, as a racist pogrom in the making, always just one dodgy Daily Mail editorial away from going on the rampage.”

I’m amazed there haven’t, so far, been any resignations. In normal times, this would have been almost automatic, but because of the strange weakness/strength of the government, the Brexit process, the fact that the Home Secretary at the time is now the PM and the fact that she faces a shambles of an opposition, this isn’t happening.

Whatever the solution is, it needs to happen fast. Deporting your own citizens is not a good look for a Britain attempting to make its own way in the modern world.

The greatest trick the EU ever pulled was convincing the world that it was ‘Europe’

I’ve always been struck by that line in The Usual Suspects where Kevin Spacey’s character quotes the old saying:

“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he doesn’t exist”

Religious or not, it’s a powerful statement. Its power lies in its inherent simplicity, a simplicity that makes you stop and question. For those who believe in the devil, it is a statement of terror. ‘People don’t even believe he exists, how can they know the true and cunning power being exerted upon them?’ For those who don’t, it makes you question. ‘If I don’t believe he exists…is it because he doesn’t exist…or because he has fooled me?’ Even if only momentarily, the power of the conundrum can jolt.

I started to realise very early on in the referendum campaign that, though not necessarily deliberately, the terms ‘EU’ or ‘European Union’ were being conflated with the term ‘Europe’. This is, of course, nothing new – for decades this conflation has been rife. But it started to matter seriously when the country was about to take a vote on it.

Now, the reason given is one of simplification. “Oh, you know what I mean when I say Europe.” But therein lies its power. Let’s just make it simpler…let’s just say Europe, it’s easier, ‘European Union’ is so cumbersome, ‘EU’ doesn’t really roll off the tongue…

All perfectly true. But let’s take a look at the two distinct terms.

‘Europe’ conjures up images of wonderful cheese, beautiful wine, fresh bread, trains that glide across serene countryside, alpine skiing, sandy beaches…it’s an emotional term.

‘European Union’, whether you’re for or against, puts one in mind of bureaucracy, not getting much done, huge expense, federalism, bullying of small nations, the migrant crisis…it’s a practical term.

During the campaign, I endlessly made this point, almost compulsively correcting the word ‘Europe’ with ‘European Union’, because it was important to me that we talked about the actual issue, rather than reaching for emotion. But I was drowned out. Much as many Leavers on television kept having to say “we won’t be leaving Europe, just the European Union”, I tried in vain to steer the argument toward accuracy, but it was no good. Being accurate was deemed to be simply providing a smokescreen in front of a deep seated hatred. The scoffing and the sliming was too overwhelming. The apparent effort it would take to change this language to be accurate was too much. But this is always a good sign that you’re right, so I suppose I shouldn’t be too worried.

And before I move on, that point is important. It is actually inaccurate to say that Britain is leaving Europe. Inaccurate. Not true. Lefties, I thought this was important to you?

Someone who really gets this distinction is one Jeremy Corbyn. Quiet as he is on his certain desire to leave the European Union (interesting that his followers don’t seem to mind this and let him get away with it, despite their almost worshipful adoration of the EU), he knows full well that Europe is not the same as the EU.

He gets it. His followers resolutely do not. And here is another point which I have been trying to make but cannot get through to anyone with…Jeremy Corbyn’s ideas CANNOT BE EXECUTED whilst Britain is in the European Union. It is impossible. Illegal. Not allowed. If you voted to Remain, but voted for renationalisation, protecting industries etc…you have cast two completely contradictory votes. And anyone claiming the EU can be reformed…well there really will be no convincing you.

It suits the monstrous EU to be called Europe. Much as it suits the wolf to be called Grandma. It knows that whilst people will look past its ugly associations and choose to hear German symphonies in their heads and smell French cheese in their nostrils whenever they talk about ‘Europe’, it is safe.

“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he doesn’t exist”.

The line was uttered by Kevin Spacey’s character, Roger ‘Verbal’ Kint. Well, that was who he said he was anyway.

Doesn’t really roll off the tongue though…does it?